Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League weekend.
Some bets don't need overcomplicating. You look at the venue, you look at the numbers and the picture becomes clear. Brentford at home is one of those situations and the 10/11 with Sky Bet against Nottingham Forest is very hard to turn down.
The Gtech has quietly become one of the toughest places to go in the Premier League. Brentford have taken 24 points from a possible 33 at home, the fourth-best home record in the division. That's not built on soft fixtures either, it's a repeatable edge driven by structure, intensity and crowd energy.
Brentford are aggressive in duels, strong in second balls and ruthless in moments that matter. They turn games into uncomfortable experiences for visiting teams.
Oliver Glasner's impending departure at the end of the season matters. Even the most professional squads feel it when leadership has an expiry date. Messages lose a fraction of their bite. It doesn't mean Palace will down tools but it does mean focus can blur at the margins and at this level fine margins decide Premier League games.
Chelsea, fresh from their own off-field shake-up, arrive with something Palace lack right now: clarity. No looming exits. No major distractions. Just points to chase and a clear objective under Liam Rosenior to finish in the Champions League places. In matches like this, that mental clarity is an underrated edge and does make Chelsea an interesting betting proposal at Evens with Sky Bet.
Joelinton and emotional control have always lived on opposite sides of the street. He plays on the edge because Newcastle need him to. Intensity, duels, aggression - it's his job description. And against Aston Villa, that edge has repeatedly tipped into yellow card territory.
Joelinton has been booked in five of the last seven meetings between Newcastle and Villa. That's not a coincidence. Villa bring the kind of technical ball carriers and intelligent movers that force Joelinton into recovery challenges, late tackles and tactical fouls.
Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans and Ollie Watkins are card magnets. Since the start of last season, that trio have collectively drawn 48 cards from opposition players. They're clever with their movement, sharp on the turn and excellent at inviting contact in dangerous areas.
The 9/4 with Sky Bet for Joelinton to be carded is a serious runner.
Bukayo Saka's current run of 12 games without a goal in all competitions is his joint-longest drought for Arsenal. From a surface view, that type of run would put people off selecting him in the goalscorer markets. But I see it differently. Trends in football always snap. And timing is everything when it comes to snapping them for profit.
Saka is still Arsenal's creative heartbeat, the outlet for danger and the player most likely to exploit half-chances in the final third. Arsenal are likely to control large portions of this game and Saka will be central to creating or finishing chances.
From a betting standpoint, the question isn't whether Saka will score eventually - it's when. This looks the time to jump on at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin facing Everton for the first time in his career is a classic "ex-factor" scenario. A player with motivation, familiarity and unfinished business - all variables that can't be factored into his goalscorer prices. Add in his current form and this becomes a very juicy angle for punters. Calvert-Lewin has been in electric mood. Eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances underline his finishing sharpness and consistency.
He's leading the line for a Leeds team that have netted 17 goals in their last nine Premier League games - second only to Manchester City (18), which paints a picture of a confident team. You can get 2/1 on Calvert-Lewin finding the net.
